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Showing posts from October, 2024

Side Trips: the Boonies, Apparently

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Chevreuse, à province My latest favorite French expression is à province , which generally denotes everywhere in France that is not Paris. Example: "Habite-il à province?" (Does he live outside of the capital?) "Oui, à Marseille." (Yes, in Marseille) To say " à province" is like referring to rural areas in the US as the boonies or the sticks. Except that in France, it basically applies to the entire country, with the exception of 0.019% of France's European territory (105 km2 out of 543,940) where about 3% of its population lives.  For a factual statement (a person or thing is or is not in the capital), it therefore packs an impressive and revealing degree of snobbery. No place else is in the world can capture the imagination or simultaneously embody so many different things--fashion, culture, gastronomie, industrial innovation, royal excess, revolutionary zeal, intellectual courage, imperial overreach, faded grandeur--as Paris. But why rub it in? 35

September 2024 Gamblers Were More Bullish than Voters on Harris Win

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Excel charts make for an ugly blog. So why not a gratuitous photo of Sugar in front of a mid-1960s Facel-Vega III? IEM VS: IEM vote share contracts; WAF VS: Werewolves Adjustment Factor applied to IEM VS At the end of September 2024, IEM voter share contracts averaged $0.56 for the Democratic presidential candidate (Harris), and $0.47 for the Republican presidential candidate. By applying the Werewolves Adjustment Factor (WAF) to account for traders' historic over- and under-valuations of Democratic and Republic vote shares, at the end of September 2024, a good guess might be 53% of the votes for Harris and 48% for Trump (which adds up to more than 100% of the vote share--but hey, the smart money had spoken, if not amongst themselves). Maxim Lott and John Stossel's Election Betting Odds  site tracks presidential bets made on commercial gambling sites. On September 30, their method gave Harris a 52% chance of winning. In the case of both Lott-Stossel and WAF VS, there's ab